______________________________________________________________________ Lots of trouble with TV this week thanks to the World Cup. I'm not complaining, since I am a big soccer fan. I know it might upset some readers, but I was heartened to see Germany trounce the "cocky before their first match (against Germany) and now getting ready to head home" American team. But, boy oh boy, if Germany continues to play like they did against Yugoslavia on Sunday, they aren't going to live up to my expectations. For those that are curious, I am both a Canadian & German citizen. ______________________________________________________________________ I do not offer subscriptions to a mailing list! I do not e-mail images! ______________________________________________________________________ RAW I screwed up this week and ended up not taping RAW overnight on Monday (when it airs on TSN in Canada). Usually, this wouldn't have been a problem, since the show airs again on Tuesday afternoons. But all World Cup matches air on TSN, leading to preemptions...so, I missed the show. I'll be able to catch an edited one-hour version of the show on the weekend on another channel. Speaking of the World Cup, it has brought Toronto Star soccer columnist Norm Da Costa into the spotlight as a columnist during this period. Da Costa also does a wrestling hotline on the Star's phone information service. Years ago, he ran a weekly wrestling column in the Toronto Star. In fact, I remember when he ran a contest that would give the winner some wrestling training at Sully's Gym (run by Sweet Daddy Siki and one-time WWF jobber Ron Hutchinson). The winner? Adam Copeland, who just debuted as the Edge in the WWF. The King of the Ring tournament brackets look like this (my guesses are in yellow). Qualifiying Round ______________________________________________________________________ Quarter Finals ______________________________________________________________________ Semi Finals ______________________________________________________________________ Finals ______________________________________________________________________ Ken Shamrock Ken Shamrock (06/08 TV) Kama Mustafa ______________________________________________________________________ Ken Shamrock (06/22 TV) Mark Henry Mark Henry (06/01 TV) Terry Funk ______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ Ken Shamrock Jeff Jarrett Jeff Jarrett (06/01 TV) Faarooq ______________________________________________________________________ Jeff Jarrett (06/22 TV) Steve Blackman Marc Mero (06/01 TV) Marc Mero ______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ Rocky Maivia Rocky Maivia (06/15) Vader ______________________________________________________________________ Rocky Maivia (06/22 TV) Hunter Hearst Helmsey Hunter Hearst Helmsley (06/15) X-Pac ______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ Dan Severn Dan Severn Dan Severn (06/08 TV) D-Lo Brown ______________________________________________________________________ Dan Severn (06/22 TV) Owen Hart Owen Hart (06/08 TV) 2 Cold Scorpio ______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ Nitro Nitro also airs on TSN on Wednesday afternoon and again at midnight. Well, not this week. Nitro was knocked off the schedule in favour of the World Cup again. Thunder Since WTBS is available in Canada, there was no difficulty in taping Thunder. The show featured one very good wrestling match between Chris Jericho and El Ultimo Dragon. Dean Malenko interfered just as Dragon had Jericho in his sleeper. Afterwards, Jericho was telling Dragon that he liked him and that he should approach the championship committee about Malenko's actions. Could we be seeing another contender's match to determine who gets the shot? Other wrestling results saw Public Enemy beat Raven & Sickboy, Hugh Morrus beat Eddie Guerrero when Chavo costs Eddie the match, Stevie Ray beat Sumo Fuji (what a stereotypical name! Next week, they'll debut an American wrestler as Baseball Rushmore, I guess), Duggan beat Barbarian in a bad match, Steve Michael & Chris Benoit beat Alex Wright & Disco Inferno, and Sting & Lex Luger got a DQ win over Giant & Brian Adams. Benoit looked absolutely spectacular. - The WWF has King of the Ring on Sunday. Line-up has: * Steve Austin vs. Kane for the WWF Title * Mankind vs. Undertaker in a hell in the cell cage match * King of the Ring tournament semi-final and final matches * Al Snow vs. Headbangers (if Snow wins, he meets with Vince McMahon; if he loses, he has to leave the WWF again) * Owen Hart vs. X-Pac With Austin & Undertaker both nursing injuries there are a lot of doubts about the quality of match that they'll be able to deliver. I'm stoked about the possibility of a Severn vs. Shamrock tournament final, but I'm also nervous about how it would be booked. The Al Snow stipulation is weird: I thought the point was that he wasn't back with the WWF. - In writing about the Great American Bash PPV, the Observer writes Flat is probably the best way to describe the Bash as a show. While still thriving off the momentum created as interest in the company was on the ascension until two months ago, it is clear again that the future demands some major changes. The answer is relatively easy and initially will be painful. The old guard needs to pass the torch to the new guard. Business will go down initially, but as with the WWF, in the long run the face of the product will be fresh. It was funny seeing just before the main event that Jurassic Park sign regarding Hogan & Hart vs. Piper & Savage air because the director thought it was a positive sign, not realizing the sign emphasized the growing feeling that the wrestlers on the top of the promotion were dinosaurs. You could probably write a book, and someday someone might, just on how anyone could pay Bret Hart so much money and use him so poorly, but while his short-term money is with Hogan and that can't be thrown away, by being positioned in the dinosaur match, he clearly in the eyes of the fans became one of the dinosaurs. In addition, the announcing on this show was weaker then the wrestling. Bobby Heenan had his worst show in a long time, adding nothing, making his usual dated references while Tony Schiavone and Mike Tenay simply said nothing, even in situations that demanded a storyline. For instance, at the beginning of the show, Schiavone mentioned something about Baltimore being synonymous with the Great American Bash, but then never said why. Tenay gave virtually no background on anything or anyone, which is largely what he's there for. Having him shill for things like Hogan & Hart teaming together for the first time (actually they had teamed together twice previously in recent weeks) and Goldberg's 100th win took an edge off both matches as if everything is a fraud and nothing matters, which is true, but not the reaction you want to give your audience while watching a show they are supposed to take seriously, especially since someday they'll need that credibility to get over an angle. The whole Malenko giving back the belt on Thursday was never explained with any logic (not that there is anyone who could come up with the logic to explain it), and while it's WCW's style to try and build surprises on television the next night, the befuddled announcers inability to explain the status of the belt due to the DO made the company and announcers look like this whole company is something where rules are put together and changed whenever is convenient, which again is the case, but not something you want to have the audience believe. The entire Juventud Guerrera vs. Ron Reis thing has been a horrible idea from the start, and putting Juvi over in a match where Reis sold nothing but a low blow, visually exposed him like he's never been exposed before, never took one bump and lost because someone else hit him with a chair isn't doing any favors for the most charismatic undercard guy in the company right now. When seeing the ridiculous size difference, which was even more pronounced than one would think and mentioned by Tenay as the biggest size discrepancy in a singles match ever in wrestling (he forgot to mention that it was also the biggest talent discrepancy in a singles match ever in wrestling), it begged for a tale of the tape. But in typical wrestling fashion, they couldn't get that right because nobody wanted to say just how small Juvi is even though right there before your eyes he's looking like he's 3-foot-9 because the other guy is so large. Pushing Reis as his real height of 7-2 only made things silly when Giant, who is two or three inches shorter and seeing them in the same ring on the same night made that pretty evident, came on later in the show and they had to push him as 7-4. There was so much that could have been said about Chavo vs. Eddie, but all we got was the same nephew vs. uncle who grew up as brothers and are two years apart in age story that has been told since this feud started. Goldberg's 100th win came off badly because it was never acknowledged during the show literally until Goldberg went in the ring when it should have been mentioned in the open. However, maybe nobody wanted to emphasize it since such a large percentage of fans recognized what a fraud that 100 turned out to be when WCW simply stopped counting when Goldberg hit 99 despite him wrestling five matches since that time because in its ability to swing and miss when home run pitches are lobbed into them, WCW was totally unprepared when it came to booking Goldberg as he reached the century mark. The less said at this point about' Piper the better. Suffice to say that his role should be to come back every few months and do his commissioner role on interviews to help get someone else's angle over, and build to one referee appearance or midÄcard grudge match ott a PPV every year and special appearances when Nitro is in a city like New York and Boston where he has a history. He can only kill shows in the ring and do angles nobody will care about when pushed as a headliner nowadays. And while there is quite a bit of mileage left in Hogan, and a little bit left in Savage, the days of them going against each other and or Piper to headline are over. WCW would be better off starting now to prepare for life after them, and I don't mean replace the 45-year-old guys with the 40-year-old guys who are backing them up that have always failed when given the ball in the past, but by elevating the 25 and 30-year-old guys who some might argue aren't ready from a personality standpoint (although that isn't even close to the case anymore) but if put in position will be ready shortly, rather than what appears to be the strategy of trying to ride some aged broken down horses that drew big money in their time when preparing for the 1999 Kentucky Derby. Savage's real only value today is in the role Terry Funk played for years in ECW, in that he was linked with people in order to get the rub from his credibility and make them into genuine stars at least within their world to carry the company, like Public Enemy, Tommy Dreamer, Sabu, Cactus Jack and Shane Douglas all got. He should be doing programs where he trades wins, but does clean jobs to them to elevate them, against the likes of Chris Benoit, Chris Jericho and even Eddie Guerrero to build for the future. He did that effectively with Page last year and elevated Page to stardom but again the problem was he created another 43-year-old star. - The Observer reports that Giant Baba decided that All Japan's fans want to see Mitsuharu Misawa and Kenta Kobashi as champion, not Toshiaki Kawada. Kawada will likely be relegated to occasional title challenges, but he doesn't seem to draw as champion. - Plans are to lump together Chris Benoit, Steve McMichael, Fit Finley, and Dean Malenko as the new Four Horsemen. The problem, of course, is that the group needs to be put over by the main eventers in order to have any real status; otherwise, they'll just be another Flock. Malenko is apparently complaining about the idea. Talk continues that, one way or another, Benoit will get a huge push; I can't wait to see if any of the "stars" will actually put him over. - Since I missed the Monday night wrestling shows this week, I decided I should put a little bit of time into updating the PPV statistics. I receive a fair bit of e-mail each week asking about the data and, lately, asking me to update the data. Well, the 1998 figures are updated below and the longer-term data link now goes to a nicely-formatted page listing all of the data for PPVs back to 1995. I'll try to add data from earlier years in the future. I did some digging to verify figures, so you'll find a few minor changes compared to previous versions of the document. The biggest work was adding the match statistics for the earlier shows. I think it's interesting to analyze the data a little bit, because there are some surprises and some confirmations of widely-held beliefs. First of all, consider the summary table from the longer-term data table: Show Data Match Rating Data Time Frame Buy Rate Gross Mean Median Peak % >= * * * * WWF Last 6 months 0.92 $3.83 1.5 1.46 3.63 4.5% (2 of 44) 1998 Average 1.02 $4.3 1.65 1.70 3.75 5.6% (2 of 36) 1997 Average 0.61 $1.84 1.83 1.81 3.79 8.0% (6 of 75) 1996 Average 0.66 $1.66 1.95 2.02 3.98 10.7% (8 of 75) 1995 Average 0.75 $1.79 1.95 2.18 3.88 9.2% (6 of 65) Overall Average 0.71 $2.09 1.87 1.96 3.87 8.8% (22 of 251) WCW Last 6 Months 1.04 $4.01 1.77 1.71 3.58 5.5% (3 of 55) 1998 Average 0.93 $3.69 1.93 1.95 3.75 6.4% (3 of 47) 1997 Average 0.77 $2.45 1.96 1.98 3.81 5.9% (6 of 102) 1996 Average 0.64 $1.8 1.99 2.18 4.05 10.5% (9 of 86) 1995 Average 0.63 $1.72 1.56 1.64 3.5 7.6% (5 of 66) Overall Average 0.63 $2.26 1.87 1.94 3.79 7.6% (23 of 301) ECW Last 6 Months 0.24 $0.44 1.13 1.25 2.63 0% (0 of 15) 1998 Average 0.24 $0.44 1.13 1.25 2.63 0% (0 of 15) 1997 Average 0.22 $0.38 2.1 2.5 3.58 10.0% (2 of 20) Overall Average 0.23 $0.40 1.69 2.0 3.2 5.7% (2 of 35) Focusing first on the "last 6 months" data, WCW has a slight edge over the WWF in almost every category that I track. The only battle that the WWF wins is the average peak match rating on a PPV, and this is the smallest of victories. The depth of the talent rosters comes to light as one looks at the "last 6 months" data. Despite poor main events, WCW manages reasonably high mean and median match rating averages for the period, beating the WWF by a 1/4* . And even with all of the build-up that it offered better quality wrestling than the "big two," ECW isn't even a player in 1998 when it comes to quality. One could also "spin" the average mean and median match rating numbers to point out how much the WWF manages to do with what little it has. The 1998 figures are slightly higher for both WCW and the WWF because they both delivered poor shows in 12/97. Here's where we see the slight momentum shift that has been evident in the TV ratings in recent weeks. While WCW is still winning the battle when it comes to delivering quality matches, the buy rates and grosses shift for the first time in a year-and-a-half or so, with the WWF taking the win. The numbers are fun to stare it, IMO. Observations: * 1996 was the best year for match quality in WCW, with the only * * * * peak average in the table. The WWF ended a hair under * * * * in 1996. The mean and median averages were also pretty high, stellar in WCW. Things have really declined since then. Sigh. * ECW seems to have been a one-hit wonder when it comes to delivering great wrestling on PPV. Besides Barely Legal, they have given us pretty poor stuff. The Observer likes to comment that the PPV setting takes ECW out of its element: when fans become disinterested in the attempts at wrestling in an ECW match at the ECW Arena, the wrestlers just brawl out into the crowd to get the fans back into it. They can't do that on a carefully planned PPV. * I believe that the wrestling companies actually net about 40% of the gross revenue. Keep that in mind if you think about salary figures and other costs. * When it comes to seeing * * * * matches in WCW and the WWF, it's pretty much a wash. Every year, the total numbers of great matches are very close. WCW delivers more matches each year, so there's a temptation to knock them based on the percentages, but percentages do not reflect the amount of broadcast time given to the great matches. * Finally, looking at the detailed data for PPVs back to 1995, it is clear that some shows with particularly bad reputations don't actually end up at the bottom of the list. Indeed, WCW Souled Out actually ends up with a decidedly low mean and median match rating, and, yeah, the atmosphere for that show was horrible too, but there are a few other shows on the list that come out with lower mean, median, and peak match ratings. Can a better atmosphere justify substantially poorer match quality? ECW WrestlePalooza easily comes in at the bottom of the list. Strangely enough, the same people who harp on the poorer shows from WCW or the WWF didn't find too much negative to say about this dog. I was intrigued a bit by the match quality figures and decided to throw together another table that lists all wrestlers who have delivered * the best match on a PPV broadcast, and/or * a * * * * or better PPV match on any WWF or WCW PPV since 1995. I decided to differentiate between tag matches and single matches and I left off the Royal Rumble matches that fit the above criteria since it seems weird to credit every wrestler for the quality of that match (and it will make the table mushroom). So, who are the key players when it comes to match quality? Here's an excerpt from the table, focusing on the real stars, those who have three or more hits (either "best" or "four star" matches) in 1998, or four or more hits since 1995 (data is in the form (single matches),(tag matches) and names are listed alphabetically): 1998 1997 1996 1995 Best Match >= * * * * Best Match >= * * * * Best Match >= * * * * Best Match >= * * * * Bret Hart 4,2 1,2 3,0 2,0 6,0 3,0 Chris Benoit 1,1 3,0 3,0 1,0 1,0 Chris Jericho 2,0 3,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 Davey Boy Smith 0,1 1,1 1,0 1,1 1,0 Dean Malenko 1,0 2,0 4,0 4,0 Eddie Guerrero 1,0 6,0 3,0 1,0 1,0 El Ultimo Dragon 2,0 1,0 4,0 1,0 2,0 2,0 Juventud Guerrera 1,1 0,1 0,2 0,1 Kevin Nash/Diesel 1,0 1,0 3,0 2,0 Mankind/C. Jack/Dude 2,2 2,0 1,0 2,0 1,0 Owen Hart 0,1 0,1 1,1 1,0 0,1 Psicosis 2,1 1,1 2,0 2,0 Randy Savage 1,0 1,0 2,0 1,0 Rey Misterio Jr. 3,0 2,0 4,0 4,0 Ric Flair 1,0 3,1 2,0 Scott Hall/Razor Ramon 1,0 1,2 1,0 Shawn Michaels 1,0 5,0 2,0 6,1 6,0 4,1 3,0 Steve Austin 3,1 2,0 3,2 2,2 2,0 2,0 Sting 0,1 3,1 1,0 Undertaker 4,1 1,1 2,0 Vader 1,1 0,1 1,1 1,0 How do those figures agree with your impressions and beliefs? Well, I would argue that Kevin Nash being on the chart has little do to with his ability and more to do with his opponents for his matches (Shawn Michaels & Bret Hart). I feel the same about the Undertaker, although I acknowledge that the actual wrestling he delivers improved a lot in 1998. Still, one of his great efforts was the four-way match involving other greats and the other great effort was the cage match with Shawn. The top ten stars when it comes to delivering great PPV matches (focus on the * * * * numbers) over the past four years (in ascending order) are 10. Mick Foley, 9. Chris Benoit, 8. Psicosis, 7. Dean Malenko, 6. Eddie Guerrero, 5. Ultimo Dragon, 4. Bret Hart, 3. Steve Austin, 2. Rey Misterio Jr., and 1. Shawn Michaels, I think what's stunning to me about that list is that Michaels, Misterio Jr., and Bret retain such a strong position when none of them has been a quality player for many months (due to injury in the first two cases and to minimal usage in the third case). Still, the top four guys on the list feature three guys that haven't done anything lately and one guy who has been reduced to garbage wrestling. The next chunk consists of WCW cruiserweights & Benoit, all of whom don't get the respect they deserve for their work ethic. Foley rounds out the pack, but, truthfully, I'm still not sure if his three * * * * efforts are due to him, his opponents (Michaels & Austin), or the garbage style. That will raise some ire among people reading this, but notice that Kevin Nash also has three * * * * efforts. He comes in behind Foley, IMO, because Foley's matches occurred more recently. If I made the same statement about Nash as I made about Foley above (this time with opponents Michaels & Bret Hart), I don't think people would get excited at all. The fact that nobody new has been plugged into the "great match" spot that the absent wrestlers held does a lot to explain my recent malaise when it comes to North American wrestling. Go back to the summary statistics and notice that we've only had five * * * * matches on PPV in 1998 (with ten PPVs recorded). Further notice that three of those five matches (Austin vs. Dude Love twice, DDP vs. Raven) were garbage wrestling matches and you start to get a feel for where I'm at. - RAW beat Nitro on 06/22 with a 4.3 rating versus a 4.1 rating. The detailed ratings are a click away. - PPV buy rates, revenue (in millions), and match statistics for the WWF, WCW, and ECW are presented in the following 1998 summary sheet: Show Data Match Rating Data Date Show Buy Rate Gross Mean Median Peak % >= * * * * WWF 98/05/31 IYH Over The Edge 0.65 (preliminary) $2.90 1.06 1/2* * * * * 1/2* Steve Austin vs. Dude Love 13% (1 of 8) 98/04/19 IYH Unforgiven 0.85 $3.78 1.75 * * * * * Steve Austin vs. Dude Love 14% (1 of 7) 98/03/29 WrestleMania 2.2 (WWF figure?) $9.52 1.81 * 1/2 * * * 1/4 Austin vs. Michaels, Cactus & Funk vs. NAO 0% (0 of 8) 98/02/15 IYH No Way Out 0.45 $1.67 1.43 * 1/2 * * * 1/2 HHH & NAO & Vega vs. Austin & Owen & Cactus & Funk 0% (0 of 7) 98/01/18 Royal Rumble 0.97 (1.03 claimed) $3.62 2.38 * * 1/2 * * * 1/2 Rumble, Max Mini & Nova & Mosaic vs. Battalion & Torio & Tarantula 0% (0 of 6) Last 6 months 0.92 $3.83 1.5 1.46 3.63 4.5% (2 of 44) 1998 Average 1.02 $4.3 1.65 1.70 3.75 5.6% (2 of 36) WCW 98/05/17 Slamboree 0.72 $3.20 1.92 * * 1/2 * * * 1/4 Chris Benoit vs. Fit Finley, Chris Jericho vs. Dean Malenko, Eddie Guerrero vs. Ultimo Dragon 0% (0 of 9) 98/04/19 Spring Stampede 0.72 $3.20 2.4 * * 1/2 * * * * Ultimo Dragon vs. Chavo Guerrero Jr., DDP vs. Raven 20% (2 of 10) 98/03/15 Uncensored 1.1 $4.12 1.69 * * 1/2 * * * 3/4 Chris Benoit vs. DDP vs. Raven 0% (0 of 9) 98/02/22 SuperBrawl 1.1 (preliminary) $4.12 1.68 * 1/4 * * * 3/4 Juventud Guerrera vs. Chris Jericho 0% (0 of 10) 98/01/25 Souled Out 1.02 $3.81 1.92 * * * * * Chavo & Calo & Lizmark vs. Juventud & Parka & Dandy 11.1% (1 of 9) Last 6 Months 1.04 $4.01 1.77 1.71 3.58 5.5% (3 of 55) 1998 Average 0.93 $3.69 1.93 1.95 3.75 6.4% (3 of 47) ECW 98/05/03 WrestlePalooza 0.24 $0.45 0.64 1/2* * * Mikey Whippreck vs. Justin Credible 0% (0 of 7) 98/03/01 Living Dangerously 0.23 $0.42 1.56 * * * * * 1/2* Dudleys vs. Spike & New Jack vs. Rotten & Mahoney 0% (0 of 8) Last 6 Months 0.24 $0.44 1.13 1.25 2.63 0% (0 of 15) 1998 Average 0.24 $0.44 1.13 1.25 2.63 0% (0 of 15) Longer-term data is available. A table of wrestlers who have delivered quality matches is also online. - WCW has Bash at the Beach on 07/12/98. Tentative line-up has: * Hulk Hogan & Dennis Rodman vs. Diamond Dallas Page & Karl Malone * Chris Jericho vs. Dean Malenko for the Cruiserweight Title - The WWF has In Your House on 07/26/98. - WCW has Road Wild on 08/08/98. - The WWF has SummerSlam on 08/30/98. Jerry Springer is expected to be involved in the show. - WCW has Fall Brawl on 09/13/98. - The WWF has In Your House on 09/27/98. - The WWF has In Your House on 10/18/98. - WCW has Halloween Havoc on 10/25/98. - The WWF has Survivor Series on 11/15/98. - WCW has World War III on 11/22/98. - The WWF has In Your House on 12/13/98. - WCW has Starrcade on 12/27/98. - Videos: I have posted something about the availability of videos. If you missed it, I'll send it to you in e-mail upon request. ______________________________________________________________________ Thanks to: Masaki Aso. ______________________________________________________________________ If you have any feedback regarding my web pages, please send me e-mail. Don't forget to delete the leading "x" from my e-mail address; that "x" is my web spider spam guard. ______________________________________________________________________